Macroeconomic Forecast Thailand

Thailand's trade exports contracted by 12.5% y-o-y in November, compared to an expansion of 21.5% y-o-y in October. Meanwhile, imports also contracted by 2.4% y-o-y in November. Although we are expecting a rebound in trade as the floods begin to recede, we believe that a deteriorating outlook on external demand will keep export growth subdued over the coming months. This suggests that Thailand's trade surplus will continue to narrow in 2012.

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