Three Scenarios For Growth

China's economy is clearly entering a slow patch as both the manufacturing and services sectors feel the strain of higher interest rates and tightening money supply conditions. The big question is whether this will prove temporary or whether it will continue and intensify. Our core view on China's growth rate is that we are past the boom phase and we are entering a period of much weaker expansion, with headline real GDP growth set to fall to 7.5% by 2013. Despite being below consensus, we believe the risks to our forecasts are tilted to the

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: