Global Cycle Set To Turn Against The Region

The emerging Asian growth boom is beginning to show signs of succumbing to the stresses of high oil prices, higher interest rates, stronger currencies, and the supply chain disruptions brought about by the Japanese earthquake. While growth remains positive on the whole, the pace of expansion looks set to fall further amid a backdrop of cooling money supply growth across the region. We remain below consensus on Asian real GDP growth, forecasting a simple average growth rate of 5.4% in 2011 versus consensus expectations of 6.0%.

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