Inter-Korean Warming Unlikely Until 2013

BMI View: A major breakthrough in inter-Korean relations is unlikely before South Korean President Lee Myung-bak leaves office in February 2013. The North is most likely hoping for a victory by the South's opposition in the December 2012 elections, which could augur a friendlier stance from Seoul. In practice, however, we believe North-South relations will remain volatile regardless of who prevails.

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