Macroeconomic Forecast Bangladesh

The latest data showed the country's cumulative current account surplus through the first ten months of FY2010/11 (July-June) at US$641.0bn, approximately US$2.0bn smaller than the surplus recorded through the same period in FY2009/10. Despite the strong growth of exports, import growth has kept pace from a higher base while the growth of current transfers (primarily remittances) has been meagre. Remittances remain crucial to the stability of Bangladesh's external accounts, without which, it would be running chronic current account deficits. April's reading places downside risk on our end-FY2010/11 current account surplus forecast of US$835.8bn.

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