Economic Analysis - Growth To Slow In 2018 Amid Mounting Headwinds - JAN 2018


BMI View: Hong Kong's economy held up well in the first three quarters of 2017, clocking in real GDP growth of 3.9% y-o-y, and we are revising up our 2017 forecast to 3.7% from 3.5% previously. However, we are maintaining our forecast of 3.0% in 2018 due to a cooling housing market and slowing trade, despite some support from the retail sector.

Hong Kong's Q317 real GDP growth slowed slightly to 3.6% y-o-y from a revised figure of 3.9% y-o-y in the previous quarter, bringing cumulative growth for 2017 to 3.9%, and we are revising up our 2017 forecast slightly to 3.7% (from 3.5% previously) as the economy has held up well over the course of 2017. That said, we are maintaining our 2018 real GDP growth forecast at 3.0%, which reflects our expectations for economic growth to cool over the coming quarters.

Retail Sector Making A Gradual Comeback

Holding Up Well Over The Course of 2017
Hong Kong - Real GDP Breakdown, % chg y-o-y & Percentage Point Contribution
Source: BMI, Censtatd

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