Economic Analysis - ASEAN: Deep Dive Into The Risk-Reward Landscape - FEB 2018


BMI View: Southeast Asia is an attractive market for businesses looking to expand overseas. We expect continued economic reforms and demographic trends to drive growth outperformance from a regional and global perspective. In this article, we look at the ease of doing business, political risks, and operational challenges across the region .

* Editor ' s Note: T his is the first research note in a two-part series looking at the business environment of ASEAN economies. This piece of analysis provides a broad overview of the region, while the second part will focus on individual countries.

We believe that Southeast Asia will continue to grow in prominence over the coming decade due to its extremely large market potential resulting from bright reform prospects, increased regional integration, strong demographic trends, and relatively mild economic imbalances ( see ' ASEAN: A Bright Spot Amid Global Weakness, April 27 2016). This is particularly true as the global economy risks shifting towards greater trade protectionism, while weak productivity growth and deteriorating demographics are likely to limit the number of fast-growing profitable opportunities in developed markets. As ASEAN continues to reduce trade and investment barriers both internally and externally, we expect to see more investment flowing into the region, supporting our forecast for real GDP growth to average 5.1% (unweighted) over the next ten years, versus 3.1% globally.

ASEAN To Become 4th Largest Economy By 2026
Nominal GDP, USDbn
BMI, National Sources

This article is part of our South East Asia Vol 1 coverage. To access this article subscribe now or sign up for free trial