China & North East Asia

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest China & North East Asia Analysis

Currency Forecast - KRW: Shifting To An Appreciatory Bias - AUG 2017

A widening real yield differential with the US due to very low inflation expectations, and the significant change in the trajectory of the Chinese yuan have improved the outlook for the Korean won, and we are shifting to an appreciatory bias. We have upgraded our 2017 average forecast to KRW1,160/USD from KRW1,250/USD previously, and forecast further mild appreciation beyond this.

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Political Risk Analysis - New President, Same Challenges - JULY 2017

The election of Moon Jae-in as South Korea's new president is unlikely to lead to a significant improvement in the country's domestic policy environment, with the new president's The Minjoo Party of Korea lacking a majority in parliament. Moon has espoused a more interventionist style of government, but we expect him to face difficulties in implementing his policies given the structural nature...

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