China & North East Asia

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest China & North East Asia Analysis

Economic Analysis - Upgrading Growth As External Outlook Improves - DEC 2017

South Korea's economy grew by 2.7% y-o-y in Q217, bringing H117 growth to 2.8% y-o-y, and we are upgrading our 2017 real GDP forecast to 2.8% from 2.6% previously (the same rate as 2016). Strong demand from the electronics sector is likely to be the main driver of both export growth as well as provide continued support for fixed asset investment in the semiconductor sector. Domestically, while...

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Currency Forecast - KRW: Long-Term Appreciatory Trajectory Still Intact - NOV 2017

We remain neutral on the KRW in the near term as the currency continues to test key technical resistance while geopolitical tensions remain high. Over the longer term, we expect the currency to appreciate slightly as it remains supported by positive growth-inflation dynamics, a still-undervalued real effective exchange rate, and a strong external position.

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