China & North East Asia

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest China & North East Asia Analysis

Political Risk Analysis - Improving Political Outlook Positive For Growth - JUNE 2017

Taiwan's ruling DPP appears to have gained its policy footing and has started passing bills and implementing legislation aimed at improving the economy's growth outlook. With the opposition KMT remaining relatively weak due to infighting and an upcoming leadership competition, the KMT is unlikely to be able to actively stall the passage of DPP-sponsored bills through the parliament. We believe...

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Economic Analysis - Domestic Factors To Support Growth - MAY 2017

The surge in exports and gross fixed capital formation growth resulted in Taiwan's 2016 real GDP expanding by 1.4%, slightly above our forecast of 1.1%.We expect export growth to slow over the coming quarters amid external uncertainties and the ongoing slowdown in China. However, the 2017 Universiade games and the gradual diversification of tourist arrivals will lend support to the economy. The...

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Currency Forecast - TWD: Gradual Strength Ahead - APR 2017

We maintain our slightly bullish outlook on the TWD over the coming months, with the currency supported by a positive technical picture. Over the long-term, we expect a gradual appreciation as a strong external position, a relatively sound fiscal outlook, and an undervalued exchange rate lend support to the currency. Yuan depreciation poses the main downside risk to our view.

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