Australasia & South Pacific

Monthly political risk, economic forecasts and business environment analysis on each country market

Latest Australasia & South Pacific Analysis

Economic Analysis - No Rate Cuts On The Horizon - DEC 2017

The BPNG kept its monetary policy on hold in its September bi-annual statement, and while it sounded relatively dovish, we expect the central bank to remain on hold through 2018. Persistent fiscal deficits, higher inflation, and a recharged fed hiking cycle will likely leave little policy room for BPNG to ease any further to support growth.

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Economic Analysis - Inflation Is Brewing - DEC 2017

Timor-Leste has been gradually moving out of deflation and we expect inflationary pressures to persist amid rising food and fuel prices. In addition, the government's ongoing infrastructure investm...

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Economic Analysis - Significant Rebound In Growth Unlikely But BOP Surplus Encouraging - NOV 2017

Papua New Guinea's external position appears to be showing signs of stabilisation, which is in line with our view for economic growth to bottom out in 2017 and recover slightly in 2018. However, the PGK is still facing downside pressure and we see little chance of a significant rebound in growth back to high single or double digits levels as commodity prices are likely to recover to pre-2014...

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Economic Analysis - Budget Aimed At Retaining Support Ahead Of Elections - OCT 2017

The Fijian government's FY2017/18 (July-August) appears to be an election budget aimed at the parliamentary elections that will be held in 2018 with tax cuts and increased spending on education and the sugar sector. While increased investment in infrastructure will be positive for development over the longer term, the government's efforts to raise revenue appear to be limited. We thus believe...

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