Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Commodity Price Rout A Blow To Development Agenda - MAR 2016

Australasia & South Pacific February 2016 / Papua New Guinea / Economy

Papua New Guinea's economy has tumbled from feast to famine amid the collapse in commodity prices, and the country's non-resource sectors may be in recession. While the country still has strong potential as a result of its continuing resource bonanza, translating these gains into broader economic development will be increasingly difficult as the government struggles to shore up its deteriorating fiscal accounts.

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Economic Analysis - Jing-Jin-Ji Integration Set To Benefit The Region, Though Risks Remain - MAR 2016

China & North East Asia February 2016 / China / Economy

The Jing-Jin-Ji integration plan, which aims to promote sustainable growth and help first tier cities climb up the value chain, will have a positive impact on economic development in the region over the coming years. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will benefit from transport integration and industry upgrading. However, environmental concerns and protectionism will continue to pose risks to the progress.

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Industry Forecast - Rise In Government Borrowing No Threat To Stability - MAR 2016

South Asia February 2016 / Pakistan / Economy

The Pakistani banking sector has seen its assets surge over the past year owing to a sharp rise in loans to the government. However, this reflects the reduction in government borrowing directly from the central bank and thus poses little threat to stability. Meanwhile, positive reforms such as increased central bank independence and the coming implementation of a deposit insurance scheme should be positive for banking sector stability over the medium term.

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Political Risk Analysis - Crucial Period As NLD Forms New Government - MAR 2016

South East Asia Vol 1 February 2016 / Myanmar / Political Risk

The January-April period will be a particularly crucial one for Myanmar as the NLD assumes the reins in parliament and elects a new government. While it remains unclear who the NLD will put forward for the presidency and speakerships, we retain our expectations for Aung San Suu Kyi to assume a dominant role in government in any case. It appears increasingly likely that the NLD will look to include some USDP lawmakers in the government in order to bolster the national reconciliation process, particularly following Suu Kyi's meetings with top Tatmadaw and USDP stakeholders.

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Economic Analysis - SGD, GDP To Falter As China Weighs - MAR 2016

South East Asia Vol 2 February 2016 / Singapore / Economy

Singapore's considerable exposure to the Chinese economy will weigh on its growth prospects over the next two years, and we have downgraded the city-state's real GDP growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar will remain under pressure as the Chinese yuan depreciates and the MAS looks to ease its currency policy in April, taking the unit to SGD1.5000/USD by the end of 2016.

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