Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Outlook For Sugar Industry Remains Positive - MAY 2018

Australasia & South Pacific March 2018 / Fiji / Economy

We expect Fiji's sugar industry to benefit from overseas aid from India and continued government investment in the sector. Ongoing repairs to the machinery ahead of the crushing season will also be positive for yields and raise production. With sugar being one of Fiji's key crops, this will be supportive of growth and we forecast real GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2018.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Regulatory Hurdles Weigh On Positive Fintech Outlook - MAY 2018

China & North East Asia March 2018 / Taiwan / Industry

Taiwan has a solid technical framework for the adoption of fintech, but the slow pace of regulatory development and an unenthusiastic addressable user base threatens to hinder meaningful progress to fintech development in the country. There is limited room for growth, a lacking of a unique value proposition for investors and little incentive for companies to implement new technologies.

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Industry Trend Analysis - Teetering On The Brink Of A Banking Crisis - MAY 2018

South Asia March 2018 / Bangladesh / Industry

We believe that the Bangladesh banking sector is increasingly at risk of a banking crisis due to poor operational practices, rising non-performing loan levels, and weak capital buffers. Sector profitability will likely also decline over the coming months due to higher bad loan provisions, narrowing interest margins and slowing credit growth.

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Political Risk Analysis - All Signs Point To Continued Military Control - MAY 2018

South East Asia Vol 1 March 2018 / Thailand / Political Risk

We see little prospect of the newly founded Future Forward Party winning the upcoming Thai election, now scheduled for February 2019, and believe that a divided vote would play into the hands of the military. Even if the Pheu Thai Party manages to avoid being dissolved by the junta and wins the election, its hands will be tied in government, with real power still likely to remain in the hands of the military.

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Economic Analysis - TRAIN 2 A Net Negative For Investment - MAY 2018

South East Asia Vol 2 March 2018 / Philippines / Economy

The DOF has submitted the second tax reform package to the House of Representatives, and the bill is now in deliberation. While the proposed tax reforms may be fiscally prudent, it will likely make the Philippines less competitive versus its regional peers. Investment could slow over the near-term as the proposed conditional corporate tax reduction and repealing of fiscal incentives create uncertainties for businesses.

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