Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Politicking To Intensify In Lead Up To 2018 Elections - JULY 2017

Australasia & South Pacific June 2017 / Fiji / Political Risk

Various political parties have started jostling for position ahead of Fiji's parliamentary elections in 2018 and we expect the politicking to intensify as the elections draw near. Despite the defection of a high profile minister, we believe that the ruling Fiji First party retains the support of the majority of the population and maintain our short-term political risk score of 51.5. However, the performance of the ruling party will largely depend on their continued response to rebuilding efforts following the devastation wrecked by Cyclone Winston in 2016.

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Political Risk Analysis - New President, Same Challenges - JULY 2017

China & North East Asia June 2017 / South Korea / Political Risk

The election of Moon Jae-in as South Korea's new president is unlikely to lead to a significant improvement in the country's domestic policy environment, with the new president's The Minjoo Party of Korea lacking a majority in parliament. Moon has espoused a more interventionist style of government, but we expect him to face difficulties in implementing his policies given the structural nature of many of South Korea's economic problems. In addition, Moon also faces foreign policy challenges such as dealing with North Korea and managing ties with China.

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Economic Analysis - Political Climate To Weigh On Infrastructure Development Plans - JUNE 2017

South Asia May 2017 / Nepal / Economy

While Nepal's plans to establish a PPP centre to facilitate PPP projects bode well for the country's infrastructure development over the long term, the fractious political climate will continue to undermine its establishment and development in the near term. With progress on the centre being slow, we expect the poor investment climate to continue to weigh and maintain our real GDP forecast for growth in FY2017/18 to come in at 2.3%.

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Political Outlook - Revising Down The Long-Term Political Risk Index - JULY 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 June 2017 / Thailand / Political Risk

We are downgrading Thailand's long-term political risk score to reflect the combination of continued delays in the election timetable, increasingly strict control over the country's media and use of lese majeste laws, and the potential for a power struggle to emerge between the royal palace and the military generals. Changes over the past nine months have seen the country shift more in line with the region's authoritarian regimes, where short-term political stability, afforded by the lack of democracy, is likely to come at the cost of long term uncertainty.

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Political Risk Analysis - Ties With Vietnam To Benefit From Greater Cooperation - JUNE 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 May 2017 / Singapore / Political Risk

The signing of five cooperation agreements between Singapore and Vietnam following Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong's visit to the country in late-March underscores the Singapore government's commitment to engaging with the world and suggests that the city-state will continue to seek to deepen its trade linkages with its ASEAN neighbours. This bodes well for Singapore's trade-dependent economy, and demonstrates the government's commitment to carrying out the suggestions of the CFE.

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