Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Significant Rebound In Growth Unlikely But BOP Surplus Encouraging - NOV 2017

Australasia & South Pacific September 2017 / Papua New Guinea / Economy

Papua New Guinea's external position appears to be showing signs of stabilisation, which is in line with our view for economic growth to bottom out in 2017 and recover slightly in 2018. However, the PGK is still facing downside pressure and we see little chance of a significant rebound in growth back to high single or double digits levels as commodity prices are likely to recover to pre-2014 heights, and social instability woes are likely to persist which could undermine investor interest.

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Currency Forecast - KRW: Long-Term Appreciatory Trajectory Still Intact - NOV 2017

China & North East Asia September 2017 / South Korea / Economy

We remain neutral on the KRW in the near term as the currency continues to test key technical resistance while geopolitical tensions remain high. Over the longer term, we expect the currency to appreciate slightly as it remains supported by positive growth-inflation dynamics, a still-undervalued real effective exchange rate, and a strong external position.

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Economic Analysis - RBI To Maintain Repo Rate At 6.00% For Rest Of FY2017/18 - NOV 2017

South Asia September 2017 / India / Economy

We maintain our average FY2017/18 (April-March) consumer price inflation (CPI) forecast at 3.5%, and we expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hold its benchmark repo rate at 6.00% for the rest of FY2017/18 due to rising inflation and expectations of an economic recovery in the second half of the fiscal year.

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Political Risk Analysis - Tensions With China Running High But No Armed Conflict - NOV 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 September 2017 / Vietnam / Political Risk

Tensions between Vietnam and China have soared to a three-year high after a series of maritime spats in the South China Sea which started in June 2017. While we see no end to the maritime dispute between the two countries, and neither side is likely to tone down their tough rhetoric over the near-term, an escalation of tensions into an armed conflict is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Both sides are likely to prioritise economic cooperation, which have grown considerably in recent years.

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Economic Analysis - Positive National Day Rally Plans Not Without Challenges - NOV 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 September 2017 / Singapore / Economy

PM Lee's national day rally speech highlights the Singapore government's longer term plan to raise productivity through improving early childhood education, combatting diabetes, and improving connectivity through the Smart Nation initiative. While the government is likely to face challenges in overcoming these structural issues, the government's success would present upside risks to our forecast for real GDP to average 2.7% annually over the next decade.

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