Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - CBSI To Shift To A Neutral Policy Stance - JULY 2016

Australasia & South Pacific June 2016 / Solomon Islands / Economy

We expect the Central Bank of Solomon Islands (CBSI) to adopt a tightening bias and shift to a neutral policy stance over the coming quarters, following its decision to maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance over the course of the next six months at its April 6 monetary policy meeting. Policymakers will be increasingly concerned about rising inflationary pressures in the Pacific-Island nation, and will likely seek to achieve domestic price stability.

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Economic Analysis - Stalled Reforms Raise Spectre Of Multi-Year Stagnation - JULY 2016

China & North East Asia June 2016 / China / Economy

The lack of reform momentum in China over recent months, coupled with signs of policy incongruity and continued economic growth weakness, raises the risk of several years of economic stagnation.

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Economic Analysis - Downgrading Growth Amid Slow Reconstruction - JULY 2016

South Asia June 2016 / Nepal / Economy

Nepal continues to face challenges in reconstruction and we expect the slow pace of reconstruction efforts to weigh on growth. With the monsoon season likely to be stronger this year due to La Ni?a, leading to possible landslides and further destruction in denuded hill regions, we have downgraded our FY2016/17 growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.0% previously.

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Economic Analysis - Shrugging Off Drought Impact - JULY 2016

South East Asia Vol 1 June 2016 / Thailand / Economy

Thailand's strong Q116 growth figures suggest the economy is shrugging off the impact of the ongoing drought, supporting our view for 3.0% full-year growth. While still below potential, this would mark the fastest annual expansion since 2012, supported by rising tourism revenues and large scale public infrastructure investment.

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Economic Analysis - Strong Government Initiatives To Bolster Full-Year Growth - JULY 2016

South East Asia Vol 2 June 2016 / Indonesia / Economy

Indonesia's economic activity will pick up pace (from the 4.9% y-o-y figure registered in Q116) over the coming quarters, supported by strong investment and public infrastructure drive (we forecast Indonesia's real GDP growth to come in at 5.2% in 2016). BI's accommodative monetary policy stance will also help to bolster investor and consumer confidence. That said, the weakening of the government's fiscal position poses downside risk to our rather constructive view.

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