Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Neutral Monetary Policy For Now But Risks Remain Tilted To Upside - JUNE 2017

Australasia & South Pacific May 2017 / Papua New Guinea / Economy

Following the Bank of Papua New Guinea's decision to keep rates steady at 6.25% and to provide a neutral monetary policy guidance over the next six months, we now forecast the central bank to remain on hold through end-2017 to support the economy. Commodity-driven inflationary pressures are likely to moderate over the course of the year, while PNG's external woes appear to be easing.

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Political Risk Analysis - Improving Political Outlook Positive For Growth - JUNE 2017

China & North East Asia May 2017 / Taiwan / Political Risk

Taiwan's ruling DPP appears to have gained its policy footing and has started passing bills and implementing legislation aimed at improving the economy's growth outlook. With the opposition KMT remaining relatively weak due to infighting and an upcoming leadership competition, the KMT is unlikely to be able to actively stall the passage of DPP-sponsored bills through the parliament. We believe that this bodes well for Taiwan's real GDP growth, which we forecast to pick up to 2.0% in 2017. We have upgraded our short-term political risk score to 77.3 from 74.6 previously, to reflect the improvement in the policy environment.

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Economic Analysis - Political Climate To Weigh On Infrastructure Development Plans - JUNE 2017

South Asia May 2017 / Nepal / Economy

While Nepal's plans to establish a PPP centre to facilitate PPP projects bode well for the country's infrastructure development over the long term, the fractious political climate will continue to undermine its establishment and development in the near term. With progress on the centre being slow, we expect the poor investment climate to continue to weigh and maintain our real GDP forecast for growth in FY2017/18 to come in at 2.3%.

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Political Risk Analysis - By-Election Results Suggest Peace Process Faces Increasing Challenges - JUNE 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 May 2017 / Myanmar / Political Risk

While Myanmar's ruling NLD party maintained its comfortable majority in parliament following the by-elections in April 1, the loss of seats in predominantly ethnic minority areas suggest that these group are fast losing patience with the slow pace of peace negotiations. This, in addition to the continued violence in the northern regions, suggests that the government continues to face an uphill task to achieve peace.

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Political Risk Analysis - Ties With Vietnam To Benefit From Greater Cooperation - JUNE 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 May 2017 / Singapore / Political Risk

The signing of five cooperation agreements between Singapore and Vietnam following Singapore PM Lee Hsien Loong's visit to the country in late-March underscores the Singapore government's commitment to engaging with the world and suggests that the city-state will continue to seek to deepen its trade linkages with its ASEAN neighbours. This bodes well for Singapore's trade-dependent economy, and demonstrates the government's commitment to carrying out the suggestions of the CFE.

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