Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - RBF To Remain On Hold Through 2018 - APR 2018

Australasia & South Pacific March 2018 / Fiji / Economy

The RBF's decision to keep its Overnight Policy Rate at 0.5% during its monetary policy meeting on January 25 was in line with our expectations. With growth facing uncertainties and inflation likely to remain manageable, we maintain our forecast for the central bank to keep interest rates on hold throughout 2018 as it seeks to provide stability.


Economic Analysis - Positive Economic Outlook To Bode Well For Revenue Streams - APR 2018

China & North East Asia March 2018 / Taiwan / Economy

The Taiwan economy's positive outlook is likely to result in a constant flow of income and corporate taxes, boding well for the government's revenue streams. In addition, the export sector is showing signs of resilience, which should be positive for fiscal revenues. As such, we believe that the government will be able to achieve its revenue objectives and we maintain our forecast for the budget deficit to come in at 1.0% of GDP in 2018.


Political Risk Analysis - Khaleda Conviction To Escalate Political Tensions - APR 2018

South Asia March 2018 / Bangladesh / Political Risk

Clashes broke out nationwide in Bangladesh following the conviction of opposition BNP chairperson, Begum Khaleda Zia, for the embezzlement of funds intended for the Zia orphanage. We are downgrading Bangladesh's short-term political risk score to 58.1 (from 60.0 previously) out of 100, as we believe that this verdict is likely to worsen political tensions and result in continued social unrest over the coming months.


Economic Analysis - Growth To Moderate Amid Mounting Headwinds - APR 2018

South East Asia Vol 1 March 2018 / Thailand / Economy

Thailand's economy performed relatively well in 2017, with real GDP growth coming in at 3.9%, which was above its 10-year average of 3.0%. We expect growth to moderate over the coming quarters amid headwinds from slowing export growth, increased political uncertainty, and worsening terms of trade over the course of 2018. While we have upgraded our 2018 growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.4% previously to reflect a short-term pick-up as suggested by the leading indicator, this still reflects a moderation in growth from 2017.


Economic Analysis - Growth To Moderate But Remains A Regional Outperformer - APR 2018

South East Asia Vol 2 March 2018 / Philippines / Economy

The Philippine economy grew by 6.7% in 2017, which was in line with our estimate, and we forecast real GDP growth to moderate to 6.3% in 2018 given the deterioration in the business environment. However, we note that this is still a very respectable growth figure, which will be supported by positive demographics, the strong public infrastructure drive, and increasing trade links with China.