Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Budget Deficit Likely To Overshoot Government Projections - FEB 2018

Australasia & South Pacific December 2017 / Papua New Guinea / Economy

We believe that there is little credibility to PNG's 2018 budget figures, but note that the policy proposals are steps in the right direction. We forecast the budget deficit as a share of GDP to come in at 4.7% in 2017 and 4.4% in 2018, versus the government's target of 2.5%.


Economic Analysis - 2018 Budget: Focus On Job Creation - JAN 2018

China & North East Asia November 2017 / South Korea / Economy

South Korea's proposed 2018 expansionary budget aims to fulfil President Moon Jae-in's campaign pledges by focusing on the welfare of the people and job creation. However, we expect the government to struggle to achieve its operating headline budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP as we expect revenue collection efforts to fall short.


Monetary Policy - RBI To Remain On Hold For The Rest Of FY2017/18 - FEB 2018

South Asia December 2017 / India / Economy

The Reserve Bank of India left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.00% during its December 6 meeting, and we continue to expect interest rates to remain steady for the remainder of FY2017/18. The central bank is constrained by opposing goals of curbing rising inflationary pressures, but also ensuring that the recent economy recovery since Q2FY2017/18 remains intact.


Political Risk Analysis - Continued Repression A Snag To EU Trade Negotiations - FEB 2018

South East Asia Vol 1 December 2017 / Vietnam / Political Risk

Although Vietnam scores highly in our short-term political risk index (82.5 out of 100) due to the communist party's monopoly on power, we see the lack of democratic principles as unsustainable over the long-term. As a result, Vietnam scores poorly in our long-term political risk index (59.7 out of 100). Hanoi's poor human rights track record is also a stumbling block towards Vietnam-EU trade negotiations and potentially better relations with the west.


Economic Analysis - BSP Likely To Hike In 2018 To Safeguard Macro Stability - FEB 2018

South East Asia Vol 2 December 2017 / Philippines / Economy

As expected, the BSP kept its monetary policy on hold at its last meeting of 2017 on December 14. We maintain our forecast for the Philippine central bank to hike its policy rates by 50bps to 3.50% by end-2018 in the face of rising inflationary pressures, rapid credit growth, and a continued hawkish US Fed.