Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Political Instability Starting To Undermine Investor Interest - MAY 2017

Australasia & South Pacific March 2017 / Papua New Guinea / Political Risk

The increase in number of protests, blockades, and inter-clan rivalry in PNG poses downside risks to its economic growth recovery. Although the country boasts lucrative investment opportunities in the LNG sector, we highlight that the heightened political risks are starting to deter investors, possibly leading to more delays and cancellations of planned investment projects.

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Economic Analysis - Domestic Factors To Support Growth - MAY 2017

China & North East Asia March 2017 / Taiwan / Economy

The surge in exports and gross fixed capital formation growth resulted in Taiwan's 2016 real GDP expanding by 1.4%, slightly above our forecast of 1.1%.We expect export growth to slow over the coming quarters amid external uncertainties and the ongoing slowdown in China. However, the 2017 Universiade games and the gradual diversification of tourist arrivals will lend support to the economy. The government's infrastructure development plans will also be positive for growth. We therefore maintain our 2017 real GDP forecast at 2.0%.

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Economic Analysis - Vision 2030 Implementation To Prove Difficult - MAY 2017

South Asia March 2017 / Nepal / Economy

The laying out of Nepal's Vision 2030 is a positive step as it provides policymakers with a roadmap for the landlocked country's economic development. However, we expect implementation to be slow due to considerable challenges including an underdeveloped agriculture sector and political gridlock. We therefore maintain our forecast for Nepal's long-term growth to average 3.0% over the next decade (slightly slower than the long-term historical average of 3.6%).

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Political Risk Analysis - Achieving Peace Still An Uphill Process Following Kokang Clashes - MAY 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 March 2017 / Myanmar / Political Risk

The continued clashes in the border region of Kokang underscore the difficulties in achieving peace in Myanmar and demonstrate that deep divisions still exist between the civilian NLD government and the military. While China has agreed to mediate in the peace process, it appears that Beijing's influence over the various armed rebel groups is not as pervasive as it once was, posing further difficulties to the peace process.

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Economic Analysis - Commitment To Free Trade Positive For Business Environment - MAY 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 March 2017 / Singapore / Economy

The report released by the CFE reiterated the importance of upholding free trade and engaging the world, demonstrating the Singapore government's commitment to maintaining an open economy. Given that Singapore's small and open economy remains dependent on trade, we believe that this will be positive for the business environment and the country's longer term prospects. We thus maintain our relatively positive long-term forecast for growth to average 2.7% over the next decade.

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