Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Recovering Mining Sector Positive For Growth - AUG 2017

Australasia & South Pacific June 2017 / Fiji / Economy

The gradual recovery in aluminium and gold prices will be supportive of Fiji's mining industry, while the development of a new port aimed at improving the export of iron sand will be positive for the infrastructure sector and help to grow the island's mining industry. We therefore maintain our view for real GDP growth in Fiji to pick up to 3.5% in 2017 from an estimated 2.5% in 2016.

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Currency Forecast - KRW: Shifting To An Appreciatory Bias - AUG 2017

China & North East Asia June 2017 / South Korea / Economy

A widening real yield differential with the US due to very low inflation expectations, and the significant change in the trajectory of the Chinese yuan have improved the outlook for the Korean won, and we are shifting to an appreciatory bias. We have upgraded our 2017 average forecast to KRW1,160/USD from KRW1,250/USD previously, and forecast further mild appreciation beyond this.

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Economic Analysis - Growth Downgraded But Construction Outlook Still Positive - AUG 2017

South Asia June 2017 / Sri Lanka / Economy

We now expect Sri Lanka's real GDP growth to come in at 4.3% in 2017 (from 5.0% previously), before recovering to 4.9% in 2018, as adverse weather conditions are likely to have a lasting negative impact on the economy. We remain positive on both the construction and export manufacturing industries, but note that risks are weighted to the downside with regards to the latter.

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Industry Forecast - Benign Deleveraging To End This Year - AUG 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 June 2017 / Thailand / Economy

The combination of robust real GDP growth and efforts by the BoT to support lending growth through moral suasion are likely to lead to a rebound in loan and asset growth in H217. This will be supported by solid profitability and capital ratios among Thai banks. We see total assets growing by just 1.0% in 2017, before rebounding to 5.0% in 2018.

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Economic Analysis - Improving External Outlook Positive For Growth - AUG 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 June 2017 / Malaysia / Economy

Malaysia's Q117 real GDP expanded by 5.6% y-o-y, marking a considerable recovery from the 4.5% recorded in Q416. We maintain our forecast for Malaysia's real GDP to grow by 4.7% in 2017 amid a brightening external and domestic outlook. The strong global demand for semiconductors and higher oil prices will be positive for exports. In addition, the improvement in the domestic political outlook will be positive for the business environment while domestic demand is showing signs of recovering.

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