Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Fiscal And Economic Adjustments To Weigh On Growth - NOV 2016

Australasia & South Pacific September 2016 / Papua New Guinea / Economy

We have downgraded our real GDP growth forecast for PNG to 2.5% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017, as depressed commodity prices and the resulting fiscal and economic corrections will weigh on growth. Moreover, we highlight that sovereign risk in the country is rising as balance of payments pressure continue to mount, while limited funding options and contracting revenue streams weigh on the government's financial position.


Political Risk Analysis - Ban Ki-Moon Emerging As 2017 Presidential Frontrunner - NOV 2016

China & North East Asia September 2016 / South Korea / Political Risk

Outgoing UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is emerging as the de facto frontrunner for South Korea's December 2017 presidential election, as the conservative ruling Saenuri and centre-left liberal parties are struggling to find plausible candidates amid severe internal rifts. Meanwhile, President Park Geun-hye's deteriorating relationship with Saenuri is accelerating her descent to lame duck status, which will impede her ability to pass economic reforms and host the US's THAAD missile defence system.


Political Risk Analysis - Pursuing Cordial Relations With India And China - NOV 2016

South Asia September 2016 / Nepal / Political Risk

Given the importance of India as an economic partner, the new Nepali government will seek to repair bilateral ties that had cooled considerably under the previous administration. At the same time, the rising importance of China and Chinese investment will see Kathmandu continue to pursue cordial relations with Beijing in a bid to diversify away from the former's overreliance on India.


Political Risk Analysis - Successful Conference Only First Step Towards Peace - NOV 2016

South East Asia Vol 1 September 2016 / Myanmar / Political Risk

The successful completion of the '21st Century Panglong Conference' in late August is a positive first step for efforts at national reconciliation in Myanmar. As such, the NLD is unlikely to backtrack on its reconciliation efforts and has established a commission to investigate human rights issues in the Rakhine state. However, we maintain our view that a substantive and lasting peace is unlikely to be reached in the near future with many challenges remaining.


Economic Analysis - Paring Back 2017 Rate Hike Expectations - NOV 2016

South East Asia Vol 2 September 2016 / Malaysia / Economy

In line with expectations, BNM kept its OPR steady at 3.00% during its September 7 monetary policy meeting. We maintain our forecast for rates to remain on hold throughout the year as the central bank seeks to support growth against a backdrop of external headwinds, but note that the risks to our forecast are firmly to the downside. We have also pared back our forecast for one rate hike in 2017 as the external environment will remain challenging, and now expect rates to remain on hold at 3.00% throughout 2017.