Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Political Risk Spikes Amid O'Neill Corruption Charges - AUG 2014

Australasia & South Pacific July 2014 / Papua New Guinea / Political Risk

The recent fall-out related to corruption charges against Prime Minister Peter O'Neill has plunged Papua New Guinea into political crisis once again. In light of both O'Neill's alleged manipulation of the political system in an attempt to dismiss the charges, as well as the fresh prospect of unconstitutional change, we have downgraded both PNG's long-term and short-term political risk ratings.

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Ratings Update - Hong Kong - AUG 2014

China & North East Asia July 2014 / Hong Kong / Economy

According to reports, developers are short by a minimum of 3,100 workers for the country's Mass Railway Transit (MTR) projects which are already beset with delays. On the whole, the Construction Industry Council estimates that Hong Kong is short by approximately 10,000 additional construction workers that it will require over the next four years. While the government has looked to the Supplementary Labour Scheme in an attempt to bring in the specialised workers required for specific construction projects, developers continue to struggle to attract enough foreign workers to fill the city-state's labour gap.

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Political Risk Analysis - Improving Political Outlook After Historic Win - AUG 2014

South Asia July 2014 / India / Political Risk

On the back of the landmark win by India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which gave the party a majority in the lower house, we have upgraded our short and long-term political risk ratings, given the significant improvements that will likely aid the new administration to form and enact growth-friendly policies. That said, we expect major policy reforms to be only implemented beyond its first year in office.

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Economic Analysis - Political Tensions Pose Downside Risks To Growth - AUG 2014

South East Asia Vol 1 July 2014 / Vietnam / Economy

Despite a rise in tensions between China and Vietnam, we do not believe that it will escalate into military conflict. However, given that China is Vietnam's second largest trade partner and a key source of foreign investment and tourism, recent events pose downside risks to our growth forecast of 5.9% for Vietnam in 2014

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Economic Analysis - Positive Trends Underpin GDP Figures - AUG 2014

South East Asia Vol 2 July 2014 / Malaysia / Economy

Malaysia's economy continues to post strong domestic demand-led expansion, and we remain confident the ongoing reform efforts and the economic transformation programme (ETP) will continue to support strong medium-term growth. We forecast real GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2014, slightly below consensus estimates of 5.1%, as we expect weakening Chinese import demand and cooling domestic liquidity conditions to undermine external and domestic demand respectively.

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