Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Long Pause Ahead For The RBA - DEC 2014

Australasia & South Pacific October 2014 / Australia / Economy

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its cash rate at 2.50% for the remainder of 2014 and 2015, as nominal GDP growth continues its downtrend. The weakening AUD is unlikely to trigger a rise in imported inflation given global disinflationary trends, while macro-prudential policies should help to curtail mortgage lending, which is the only significant driver of domestic inflation.

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Risk Summary - China - DEC 2014

China & North East Asia October 2014 / China / Economy

The annual plenum of the Communist Party of China (CPC) began in the city of Beijing on October 20. Plenums, which are considered as the most important meetings in Chinese politics, often include landmark political reforms. The key meeting of the 205 members of the party's Central Committee will focus on the rule of law and combating corruption. According to a statement released by the party in September, following a meeting of the committee's political bureau, the rule of law was needed to 'build a prosperous society in all-rounded way' and to 'comprehensively deepen reform' (BBC). Although the CPC has almost 90mn members, power lies solely with the Central Committee.

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Risk Summary - Pakistan - DEC 2014

South Asia October 2014 / Pakistan / Economy

Tehran and Islamabad have summoned each others' envoys after reports of gunfights and incursions across the border. On Oct. 17, Pakistani officials claimed that 30 Iranian guards in six vehicles started shooting at a vehicle carrying members of the Pakistani Frontier Corps, two miles inside Pakistan's border. Iran and Pakistan have increasingly become more hostile toward each other due to strategic and sectarian tensions, and recent skirmishes will further complicate regional security issues.

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Risk Summary - Vietnam - DEC 2014

South East Asia Vol 1 October 2014 / Vietnam / Political Risk

We expect Vietnam to continue fostering strong political and economic ties with Europe, with several high level delegation meetings between both parties expected over the coming years. Following the recent official visit by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and European Commission President Manuel Barroso to Vietnam, Vietnam's Prime Minister has recently made a visit to Europe, with the Europe-Vietnam free trade agreement high on the agenda.

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Risk Summary - Indonesia - DEC 2014

South East Asia Vol 2 October 2014 / Indonesia / Economy

Indonesia

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