Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Instability Likely To Persist Pre- and Post-Election - APR 2017

Australasia & South Pacific March 2017 / Papua New Guinea / Political Risk

Papua New Guinea is likely to see periodic clashes between sections of society and security forces in the lead up to the election scheduled for mid-2017. Despite his growing unpopularity, we believe that the incumbent prime minister still has a moderate chance of winning that poll.

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Currency Forecast - TWD: Gradual Strength Ahead - APR 2017

China & North East Asia March 2017 / Taiwan / Economy

We maintain our slightly bullish outlook on the TWD over the coming months, with the currency supported by a positive technical picture. Over the long-term, we expect a gradual appreciation as a strong external position, a relatively sound fiscal outlook, and an undervalued exchange rate lend support to the currency. Yuan depreciation poses the main downside risk to our view.

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Economic Analysis - National Development Plan To Lay Foundation For Long-Term Growth - APR 2017

South Asia March 2017 / Bhutan / Economy

Bhutan's national development plan and efforts to diversify and strengthen its economic base are positive steps in sustaining growth in the long-term. In the near term, we expect continued investments in the hydropower sector to remain the key driver of growth, but note that the overreliance on this sector could have longer-term ramifications. As such, we maintain our forecast for growth to average 7.3% over the next decade.

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Political Risk Analysis - Ethnic Groups' Willingness To Participate A Positive Step For Peace - APR 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 March 2017 / Myanmar / Political Risk

The willingness shown by Myanmar's various ethnic groups to discuss peace and the steps that they have taken in anticipation for the next Panglong Conference meeting are positive. However, we expect progress on the peace talks to be slow due to the sheer number of ethnic groups involved. In addition, the various demands from the different groups demonstrate the difficulties that State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi will continue to face in trying to reconcile the country's warring factions.

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Economic Analysis - CFE Recommendations To Lead To Productivity Gains - APR 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 March 2017 / Singapore / Economy

The report released by the Committee on the Future Economy seeks to set out the general direction that the Singapore economy should develop towards over the medium term. We maintain our relatively positive long-term forecast for growth to average 2.7% over the next decade as restructuring and new growth engines generate productivity driven economic growth. The report is considerably lighter on implementation details as compared to previous editions, and will provide the government with considerable flexibility in interpreting the recommendations.

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