Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Economic Analysis - Growth To Decelerate In 2017 - FEB 2017

Australasia & South Pacific December 2016 / Samoa / Economy

We have revised our forecast for Samoa's real GDP growth to come in at 4.5% in 2016 (up from 2.2% previously), but maintain our expectations for economic expansion to slow to 1.9% in 2017. A number of factors such a contractionary fiscal budget for FY2016/17 (July-June), ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, and poor agricultural productivity will continue to weigh on the economy over the coming quarters.

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Economic Analysis - Cautious Budget Likely To Meet Targets - FEB 2017

China & North East Asia December 2016 / Taiwan / Economy

Taiwan's modest budget will likely hit its deficit target in 2017 due to the conservative stance adopted by the government. We therefore forecast the deficit to come in at 0.9% of GDP in line with the government's projected 0.9%.

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Economic Analysis - Demonetisation To Weigh On Growth - FEB 2017

South Asia December 2016 / Nepal / Economy

The demonetisation programme in India is likely to have a negative effect on Nepal's economy, with the country being heavily reliant on India for remittances and trade. In addition, still-slow reconstruction efforts are likely to present further headwinds to growth. As such, we have downgraded our growth forecast for FY2016/17 to 2.2% from 2.5% previously.

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Political Risk Analysis - Hanoi To Boost India Ties To Counterbalance China - FEB 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 December 2016 / Vietnam / Political Risk

Vietnam is seeking to strengthen ties with India as a means of counter-balancing China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. However, these efforts will be constrained by India's limited resources and by its prioritisation of security challenges elsewhere.

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Economic Analysis - Holding Rates As Financial Stability Takes Priority - FEB 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 December 2016 / Malaysia / Economy

BNM's decision to keep its OPR steady at 3.00% during its November 23 monetary policy meeting was in line with our expectations. We maintain our forecast for rates to remain on hold throughout 2017 as the central bank seeks to provide financial stability in the midst of external uncertainty, but we note that the risk to our forecast are to the upside.

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