Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Independence Unlikely Over Foreseeable Future - MAR 2017

Australasia & South Pacific February 2017 / Political Risk

French Polynesia will not achieve independence over the foreseeable future. The archipelago continues to confront multiple economic challenges, and will require continued financial support from mainland France. On the flipside, France will not want to relinquish control over French Polynesia as the territory will be increasingly important to its interests in the Pacific region over the coming years, given that New Caledonia is due for a referendum on independence in 2018.

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Economic Analysis - Rates To Remain On Hold Throughout 2017 - MAR 2017

China & North East Asia February 2017 / Taiwan / Economy

In line with our expectations, the CBC held its discount rate at 1.375% during its monetary policy meeting on December 22. With inflation likely to remain manageable and growth appearing to be showing signs of recovering, we expect the central bank to remain on hold throughout 2017 as it seeks to provide support to the economy amid a still-weak housing market.

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Economic Analysis - Infrastructure Investment Positive For Long-Term Growth - MAR 2017

South Asia February 2017 / Nepal / Economy

We expect the steady stream of investment in Nepal's infrastructure to be positive for the economy in the long run, while the slow reconstruction process following the earthquake and aftershocks in 2015 will continue to weigh on growth in the near term. We therefore maintain our long-term forecast for growth to average 2.9% over the next decade. However, the unstable political climate and poor business environment will continue to present risks.

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Political Risk Analysis - No Solution To Rohingya Issue In Sight - MAR 2017

South East Asia Vol 1 February 2017 / Myanmar / Political Risk

The inability of Myanmar's government to obtain a suitable solution to the Rohingya issue in Rakhine state suggests that the ruling NLD continues to struggle to bring about peace in the country despite having started the peace process in August 2016. Given the complexity of the Rohingya issue, we do not believe that it will be resolved anytime soon, and expect this to weigh on efforts to restore peace at Myanmar's borders. However, this issue will have a minimal impact on economic growth.

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Economic Analysis - Sugar Industry On Track To Recover - MAR 2017

South East Asia Vol 2 February 2017 / Fiji / Economy

The recovery in sugar prices from the lows of 2015 will be positive for Fiji's efforts to rebuild its sugar industry following the destruction wrecked by Cyclones Winston and Zena in 2016. We also expect higher prices to be positive for sugar production and this will be supportive of economic growth. As such, we maintain our 2017 real GDP forecast at 3.5%.

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