Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

 

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Economic Prospects Sound Despite Dire Political Situation - SEPT 2014

Australasia & South Pacific July 2014 / Papua New Guinea / Political Risk

Papua New Guinea's political situation has deteriorated significantly since the attempted arrest of Prime Minister Peter O'Neill in June, undermining much of the progress that the country had made following successful elections in 2012. Nevertheless, the economy's prospects remain sound, driven by PNG's ever-expanding extractive industries.

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Ratings Update - Hong Kong - SEPT 2014

China & North East Asia July 2014 / Hong Kong / Economy

The Hong Kong government on July 15 submitted two reports on the prospects for universal suffrage in the city-state's 2017 election of its chief executives. The report suggests that mainstream opinion in Hong Kong is supportive of the utilisation of a nominating committee in order to elect the chief executive. However, this conclusion appears to fly in the face of mass protests held earlier in the month (associated with the ongoing 'Occupy Central' campaign), and has angered a number of political groups in the country. As we have stated in the past, Hong Kong is highly unlikely to develop a direct voting system for the election of the chief executive.

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Business Environment Analysis - Positive Steps Despite No Drastic Liberalisation Plans - SEPT 2014

South Asia July 2014 / India / Economy

Political and bureaucratic hurdles will remain key obstacles to progress in India's business environment, preventing the newly-elected Bharatiya Janata Party-led government from implementing any drastic shifts to liberalise the market in the first few years of its term. That said, we believe the government will continue to take small steps in the right direction, especially in attempt to dampen inflation, clarify regulation and expedite infrastructure projects.

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Economic Analysis - Growth Downgrade, But Still Strong Outlook Ahead - SEPT 2014

South East Asia Vol 1 July 2014 / Vietnam / Economy

BMI View: We have downgraded Vietnam's growth forecast from 5.9% to 5.7% in 2014 on the back of weaker-than-expected H114 growth numbers, combined with the risk of a an economic backlash from China. That said, we have maintained our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in 2015, and we continue to believe that the economy will be driven by growth supportive government policies, as well as a strong outlook for foreign investment and exports.

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Industry Forecast - Merger Could Trigger Islamic Banking Boom - SEPT 2014

South East Asia Vol 2 July 2014 / Malaysia / Economy

Talks are underway to form a merger between CIMB, RHB, and Malaysia Building Society, which could potentially allow Malaysia to build on its regional dominance in the Islamic finance industry. The Malaysian government is keen to promote overseas expansion of Sharia-compliant banking, and is looking to almost double its share of assets in the domestic banking system. The proposed merger would be a significant step towards these goals.

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