Asia Monitor

Comprehensive country-by-country macroeconomic analysis, risk appraisals, latest market data and forecasts for Asia

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Key stories from this month's issue...

Political Risk Analysis - Aid Flows Unlikely To Be Affected By Refugee Issue - JAN 2018

Australasia & South Pacific November 2017 / Papua New Guinea / Political Risk

The closure of the Manus Island detention centre has negatively affected Australia-PNG bilateral relations as neither side wishes to take responsibility for the refugees, and we believe that a resolution is unlikely over the near-term. At the same time, many of the asylum seekers have refused to be resettled in PNG for fear of their own safety. That said, we do not expect the ongoing situation to result in a reduction of foreign aid from Australia.


Economic Analysis - 2018 Budget: Focus On Job Creation - JAN 2018

China & North East Asia November 2017 / South Korea / Economy

South Korea's proposed 2018 expansionary budget aims to fulfil President Moon Jae-in's campaign pledges by focusing on the welfare of the people and job creation. However, we expect the government to struggle to achieve its operating headline budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP as we expect revenue collection efforts to fall short.


Economic Analysis - GST Optimisation To Help Spur Growth Acceleration - JAN 2018

South Asia November 2017 / India / Economy

The GST Council's decision to reduce taxes on more commonly used goods and services demonstrates the government's commitment to optimising the tax system in order to support growth, and we continue to expect economic activity to pick up in H2FY2017/18 (April-March).


Currency Forecast - VND: To Continue Outperforming In Total Return Terms - JAN 2018

South East Asia Vol 1 November 2017 / Vietnam / Economy

We forecast the Vietnamese dong to remain stable against the USD over the near-term as the central bank is keen and able to manage the currency. Over the longer-term, we forecast the VND to weaken moderately against the dollar given higher inflation and an expensive REER, but higher real GDP growth should bring about outperformance in total return terms.


Economic Analysis - Digital Development Plans To Be Positive For LT Economic Growth - JAN 2018

South East Asia Vol 2 November 2017 / Singapore / Economy

The Singapore government's plans to develop digital capabilities in the city are likely to see mixed results with 5G likely to take off faster than data analytics. The plans also demonstrate the government's forward planning ability as it seeks to shift the country into new sectors in search of new growth engines. We expect the plans to take time to bear fruit due to its long-term nature, but expect them to be beneficial for the economy and we therefore maintain our long-term forecast for real GDP to average 3.1% over the next decade.